The Living Planet report 2008 (part II)

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The WWF estimates that we will soon need two planet Earths to be able to keep up with our demands on resources. This estimates are based on predictions on double annual carbon emission in 2050 made by the IPCC, as well as the increase in global population up to 9 billions, and the increase in need for food, forest and fisheries products. This is true under the assumptions that everything goes smoothly and nicely, e.g. there will be no loss in biocapacity due to freshwater loss, or no feedback loop that precipitate climate changes, and no damage by pollution. Many would agree that most of these assumptions can be regarded to as very optimistic. However, the best we can do, is to focus on the actions we can take to reduce the gap between the production and the consumption of resources. That is the gap between human footprint and available biocapacity.
From one side we need too much resources, simply because we are too many: less people, less consumption. On the other hand, biocapacity is determined by the size and the level of productivity of biologically productive area. This seems to suggest that all we need to do is to increase the productivity of the already available areas. This, however, may not be the most effective way, and there is a large risk that could backfire. Increased productivity, may require greater resources consumption and waste production. There is no one solution. We need to tackle the problem taking several different actions. Some of them will have an almost immediate impact, others may take a longer time before the positive effect will be evident.

The Climate Solution Model proposed by WWF aims at being able to produce the energy needed to meet the projected increase of demand in 2050, while reducing the carbon dioxide emission of 60 to 80%. The model proposed includes three different strategies: expansion of energy efficiency, growth in use of renewable energy, and expansion of carbon capture and storage. But if we consider the technological development that is likely to happen, we would probably be able to do much better than this. This simply means that progresses are technologically possible. There are however, three other factors that are absolutely necessary to be able to achieve this goal:

    - Governments all over the world need to agree and take common actions on effective strategies
    - Actions should be taken immediately, to avoid the risk of being trapped in the use of unsustainable technologies, that would require larger investments in the future
    - The effort should be global. Every country has the responsibility to act according to its capacity.

A study of the average per person ecological footprint for different economical regions, has pointed out some interesting features. Comparing data available from 1961, we can see that high-income regions, accounting for about 15 % of world population, have increased their footprint per person by 76%, mainly due to increased carbon dioxide emissions. This correspond to 36% of the humanity total footprint.
On the other extreme, low-income regions have tripled the population, has decreased the biocapacity available by more than 67%, while decreasing the average per person footprint by 19%. Essentially more people share the same amount of resources.
The middle-income regions has doubled the population size, and increased the per person footprint by 21% since 1961. In 2005 the demand of this group account for 39% of the humanity’s total footprint.
Some of the solutions suggested by the WWF include transfer of technology from high-income countries to middle- and low-income countries, to avoid or limit the use of energy inefficient old technologies, which will be adopted for their industrial development. Since the majority of the population lives in cities, special care should be taken in planning and building infrastructure that take into account energy needs, and influence of cities on biocapacity. Reducing individual consumption by insulating buildings or designing cities where is better to walk than driving a car, encouraging the consumption of locally produced food, increasing the energy efficiency of private and commercial buildings, and integrating utilities so that the waste produced by one can be used as input by another. Reducing the population growth in development areas, which can be achieved by empowering women, allowing them an higher education which will turn into better economical and possible access to family planning facilities.

Last but not least global trade influence strongly humanity’s ecological footprint, having increased from about 8% in 1961, to more than 40% in 2005. Most countries do not produce enough resources and need to import them from other countries. The imported resources are either consumed in the country that has imported them or processed and re-exported to third countries, adding to the average Ecological Footprint.

Governments, private sector and civil society, we are all called to contribute to the effort to achieve this common goal. The good news is that it is still not too late: a sustainable world is possible.

The full Living Planet Report 2008 is available at the WWF web page.

Category: Ecology, Environment, Sustainable Cities, Sustainable Development
Tags: > > > > > > > > > >

Comments

2 Responses to “The Living Planet report 2008 (part II)”

  1. The Living Planet Report 2008 | sustainearthbility.com
    November 14th, 2008 @ 10:20 am

    [...] So, what can be done? (read part II) [...]

  2. Claire & Greg
    December 4th, 2008 @ 3:53 pm

    Hi Serena,

    Here is an interesting article about climate change modelling.
    The article roughly tells that the results of IPCC are broadly good but it’s impossible to predict the weather in march 2060, 17th.

    http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20026851.900-are-climate-scientists-overselling-their-models.html?full=true

    Claire & Greg

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